In the 1984 ranking released by the U.S. Census Bureau, Houston overtook Philadelphia at No. 4, Los Angeles surpassed Chicago as the second-largest city and New York remained at No. 1.
This post is part of a series highlighting the findings from the 2025 Kinder Houston Area Survey.
Recent Census data suggests that Houston is poised to shake up the longstanding order of those top four cities. Should population trends continue, Houston could overtake Chicago as the nation’s third-largest city by 2035, according to a 2024 analysis by the Illinois Policy Institute.
As a metropolitan area, Houston is the fifth-most populous in the country, with nearly 7.8 million residents. The Houston metro as defined by the Census Bureau includes Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Waller counties.
From 2010-2023, the metro added over 1.5 million new residents, making it the second-fastest growing in the nation behind Dallas-Fort Worth.
During that same time period, the Chicago metro lost about 210,000 residents, Los Angeles’ population dipped by about 40,000 people and New York added about 580,000 people. Between 2023-2024, Houston added over 198,000 people, trailing only the New York metro in numeric growth, according to the Census Bureau.
The 44th Kinder Houston Area Survey found that nearly 4 in 10 residents in Fort Bend and Montgomery counties have lived in the Greater Houston area for 0-14 years, and almost half moved to those counties as adults. More than 7 in 10 Harris County residents have lived in the Greater Houston area for at least 15 years, and 4 in 10 were born here.
For residents who moved to the Greater Houston area as adults, nearly half (49%) indicated that it was for a job opportunity. Other common reasons were family-related (26%) or education-related (10%).
The study also found that the majority of residents view Houston as a good place to put down roots. Most in Fort Bend (65%), Harris (56%) and Montgomery (61%) counties said they have stayed in the area because they like the life they have here. When asked about their quality of life in the Houston area, 83% of Fort Bend County residents, 71% of Harris County residents and 80% of Montgomery County residents said it was good, very good or excellent.
The Houston-Galveston Area Council projects the area’s population to surpass 10,000,000 by 2050. However, those projections only account for eight of the 10 counties included in the metro area.
Suburban sprawl, immigrants driving Houston’s expansion
A key to Houston’s population boom is the continuing development in neighboring counties, particularly Fort Bend and Montgomery. Both have become bustling urban centers, according to Census estimates from July 2024.
For example, Fort Bend County and the city of Austin are both closing in 1,000,000 total residents, with Fort Bend trailing by about 35,000. With a population of nearly 750,000 residents in Montgomery County, it exceeds the city of Denver by more than 20,000.
Fulshear, in northwest Fort Bend County, is now home to about 55,000 residents. It was the second-fastest-growing city in the U.S. in 2023 and 2024, according to Census estimates.
Montgomery County, which includes Conroe and The Woodlands, is “one of the fastest-growing counties in the country,” said Dan Potter, director of the Kinder Institute’s Houston Population Research Center and a Kinder Houston Area Survey co-author, in an interview with ABC13. From 2010-2023, it and Fort Bend County grew by 55% compared to 25% in Harris County (excluding the city of Houston).
A significant contributor to the region’s population increase has been an influx of residents born outside the U.S.
Growth within the city of Houston has leveled off, but of the 200,000 residents gained since 2010, roughly 70,000 were immigrants. Fort Bend County saw 325,000 new arrivals, with immigrants accounting for nearly 140,000. In Harris County (excluding the city of Houston), more than 200,000 of the 520,000 new residents were foreign-born. Montgomery County added 250,000 people, including 60,000 immigrants.
Potter said a shift in immigration policy could be a factor that impacts the Houston area.
"If we think about the way federal policy is working, are we going to see that continued growth moving forward, knowing how much this area relies on international migration for its growth, and knowing the importance of immigrants to the Houston community?" Potter asked in a Houston Chronicle report.
Population increases do not come without consequences, and could increase strain on vulnerable infrastructure throughout the region.
Houston is the fastest-sinking city in the country, according to a study released in May in the journal Nature Cities. The report said that over 40% of the Houston area is sinking more than 5 millimeters a year, and 12% is sinking two times faster. Some locations are sinking by 2 inches per year.
According to the Kinder Houston Area Survey, infrastructure was seen as the biggest problem facing the Houston area for 12% of Fort Bend County residents and less than 10% of residents in Harris and Montgomery counties.
“What makes Houston attractive today can get lost with boundless and unchecked growth tomorrow,” Potter said. “An area that grows without proper planning and investments in infrastructure will have that growth catch up with them when the results are neither attractive to people looking to move in or to families and households already living there.”
More households, new trends
Every part of the Kinder Houston Area Survey’s three-county region experienced an increase in households between 2010-2023. The city of Houston and parts of Harris County that exclude the city added a higher number of households but had a lower percentage increase than Fort Bend and Montgomery counties.
The survey also noted that household composition is changing, reflecting a greater number of single professionals, childless couples and empty-nesters. The average household size in the city of Houston declined from 2.73 to 2.41 people from 2010-2023. In Fort Bend County, it decreased from 3.16 to 3.00, and in Montgomery County it dropped from 2.81 to 2.70.
“When individuals and families of all shapes and sizes around the state, country and world look for a new place to call home, many of them find a destination in the Houston area,” the report said.
