The Houston-Galveston Area Council adjusted its 2050 population estimate to 10.7 million for its eight-county Transportation Management Area, an increase of 3.6 million people from the current population. That is about 500,000 fewer people than the council’s previous projection of 11.2 million published in 2018, or about a 5% decrease. The projected average annual growth rate is now 1.4%; annual growth is expected to gradually decline from 1.7% in 2023 to 1% in 2050.
These projections could change again amid an evolving economic and political environment.
“While (the projections) provide a solid foundation, future changes in immigration policies, the economy, environmental conditions or technology could influence growth in ways not fully captured in the forecast,” said Pramod Sambidi, the council’s assistant director of data analytics and research.
The forecast is based on trends in migration, fertility and survival rates — and residents are somewhat anxious about what this growth means. In the 2024 Kinder Houston Area Survey, about 1 in 10 said population growth will be the biggest problem Houston has to contend with in the next 20 years. The forecast could be critical in determining where homes, schools and new roads are built.
Dan Potter, director of the Kinder Institute’s Houston Population Research Center, said the key to the region’s growth is it is enticing for economic, social, geological and political reasons, or a combination of those factors. That appeal brings in new residents and keeps them here.
“(The Houston area) has been attractive to individuals and families for decades, and these current projections suggest that Houston will continue to be an attractive place to live. Yet, other cities around the country who have seen their population size plateau or, in some cases, decline serve as a reminder: Attractiveness is not guaranteed,” Potter said.
“What makes Houston attractive today can get lost with boundless and unchecked growth tomorrow. An area that grows without proper planning and investments in infrastructure will have that growth catch up with them when the results are neither attractive to people looking to move in or to families and households already living there.”
The Houston-Galveston Area Council’s projections cover Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller counties. They do not represent the full 13-county council membership or the official Houston metro area as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Harris County is expected to add over 1.2 million residents between 2025 and 2050. Fort Bend County is projected to grow by over 527,000 people and Montgomery County is expected to increase by more than 576,000.
Sambidi said suburban areas, not the region’s urban core, will be impacted by growth the most.
“Lower mortgage rates from 2009-2022 and the rise of remote work have made suburban housing more attractive, especially for families seeking affordability,” he said. “Additionally, suburban areas are seeing more multifamily developments than before the pandemic.”
Although the city and Harris County’s share of the regional population is shrinking, their position as the region’s economic centers will remain. Sambidi stressed the importance of infrastructure investments to prepare for the decades to come.
“Houston’s strong economy continues to attract people from across the state, country and world. A major factor is its relatively affordable housing market, which, despite rising costs, remains more accessible than in many other large metro areas,” Sambidi said. “Expanding transportation options, increasing housing availability and strengthening public services will be key to maintaining economic growth and ensuring Houston remains a great place to live and work.”
The revised projections used 2020 Census block-level data. The population numbers are associated with housing units based on records from county appraisal districts, which track buildings in parcels. Future population changes are simulated using an in-house model that applies fertility, survival, migration, marriage and divorce rates from the U.S. Census Bureau and Texas Demographic Center.
To predict where future housing and businesses will be located, the Houston-Galveston Area Council employs a land-use simulation model that functions like a real estate developer. It considers planned projects, such as new neighborhoods, apartment complexes and commercial centers, and assigns future households and jobs accordingly. To project employment, the council factors in historical labor force participation and unemployment rate, and data from resources such as Data Axle and Woods & Poole.
The Houston-Galveston Area Council projected the addition of 1.6 million jobs from 2020-2050. Wage and salary jobs — those that exclude self-employment — are expected to grow steadily from 3.2 million in 2020 to over 4.8 million by 2050. Self-employment is expected to increase by 500,000, reaching 1.7 million.
“Key economic sectors like mining, manufacturing, and transportation and logistics will continue to generate wealth through exports, though automation may slow job growth in some areas,” Sambidi said. “These industries will remain essential to the region’s economy, contributing significantly to its GDP.”
The Houston-Galveston Area Council’s next population forecast is tentatively scheduled for 2027.
