Houston felt the tremors of tectonic federal and state policy shifts in 2025, and in the new year, those changes will continue to reverberate throughout Houston.
Kinder Institute researchers weighed in on several of the topics and issues affecting the region that they’re watching most closely in 2026 — including the creation of a new school voucher program, the rapid escalation of immigration enforcement and cuts to social programs aimed at curbing food insecurity and homelessness.
Texas’ voucher program takes flight
Starting in February, Texas families can apply for the state’s new educational savings account, or voucher, program to use in the 2026-27 school year. Families that get a voucher will access $2,000 to $30,000 to cover approved educational expenses — including private school tuition, books and tutoring — with most families receiving closer to $10,000.
The first year of vouchers will be relatively modest, totaling about $1 billion in a state where public schools budgeted $80 billion in spending last school year. But the initial round will reveal much about the program, which only figures to grow by the billions in the coming years.
Demand for these vouchers and which types of families ultimately use them to enroll in private schools will come into focus. In other states with vouchers, over 90% of recipients already attended private schools.
The effect on public school districts already facing enrollment and funding challenges will become clearer. Large districts like Houston ISD might feel the largest impact, as private schools are more common in urban areas.
And the implications for Texas’ youngest students will start to be seen. Research by the Kinder Institute’s Houston Education Research Consortium shows students participating in public prekindergarten programs across our region have higher rates of kindergarten readiness and better attendance in early elementary grades than peers who didn’t attend. State officials haven’t yet clarified how they will monitor the quality of private pre-K programs.
Will Houston’s population boom wind down?
Houston has long distinguished itself through sustained population growth driven by migration and economic opportunity. As questions emerge nationally about whether U.S. cities are entering a slower growth period, 2026 represents an important year to assess how Houston’s demographic makeup and population trajectory is evolving.
The next 12 months will offer insight into the volatility of components that shape Houston’s growth, particularly migration patterns and their sensitivity to shifting federal policy. Immigration has historically played a vital role in Houston’s expansion, and changes in the pace, composition and geography of these flows could have meaningful local impacts.
While an outright population decline remains unlikely, slower growth — or a temporary stall — would carry implications for housing demand, schools and workforce planning. So would changes in who is moving to Houston, where growth is occurring within the region and how these dynamics reshape the city’s demographic future.
A precarious moment for food insecurity
Tens of thousands of local residents could soon lose access to federal food-assistance programs following cuts and new regulations approved by Congress in mid-2025. Food banks are scrambling to make up for a $1 billion reduction in federal support by the Trump administration. Grocery price increases have outpaced wage gains over the past several years.
These federal programs typically serve as a stabilizing force, helping families stay afloat when budgets tighten. But with reduced benefits, more Houstonians may soon face difficult trade-offs at the checkout line.
Still, there’s room for cautious optimism. Local organizations are expanding partnerships, and state and philanthropic resources could help soften the blow in the months ahead. If those trends take hold in 2026, Houston may avoid the steeper rise in hardship many expect — and keep more families nourished through an uncertain year.
A potential backslide on homelessness
Houston has reduced homelessness by over 60% since the early 2010s, drawing national praise for its remarkable progress. Recent federal and local actions, however, threaten to undo some of those gains in 2026.
In November, the Department of Housing and Urban Development released plans to drastically reduce funding for permanent supportive programs, potentially displacing thousands of people and hindering efforts to move people from the streets into stable housing. Federal officials withdrew those plans in December, but they pledged to unveil a revised proposal “as quickly as possible.”
Meanwhile, local efforts to curb homelessness, including the “superhub” shelter spearheaded by the city of Houston that’s set to open in early 2026, are more focused on temporary rather than permanent housing. The shift may be indicative of a move away from “housing first” — which recognizes the long-term importance of stable, safe and healthy housing conditions — to a model that prioritizes short-term shelters, compliance with drug testing and workforce programs.
Evicting renters gets even easier
Texas’ landlord-friendly laws already afford tenants limited due process during eviction proceedings and provide property owners the ability to swiftly remove renters. Come 2026, landlords will have even more tools at their disposal.
A new state law taking effect this month will make it easier for landlords to forcibly remove people occupying a residence deemed to be “squatters” by allowing judges to approve eviction requests without a trial.
The law also forces tenants to pay rent during the eviction appeals process or have judgment ruled against them, limits the use of video conferencing for eviction hearings so that tenants must show up in person, and removes the governor’s and state Supreme Court’s power to halt evictions in a state of emergency.
The revised laws arrive as Harris and Galveston counties are on track to record 75,000-plus eviction filings for the fourth straight year, more than double the amount recorded amid the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, according to data compiled by January Advisors and the Eviction Lab at Princeton University.
