Houston prides itself on being a city of opportunity, but many young adults have seen little change to their prospects over the past decade.
Among the nation’s largest metro areas, the Houston region made the least progress over a recent decade-long stretch in reducing its share of “disconnected youth,” defined as people between the ages of 16 and 24 who aren’t working or attending school, a new analysis of Census data by Measure of America shows.
About 13.3% of Houston-area older teens and young adults were classified as disconnected youth in 2022, down slightly from 14.2% in 2012. By comparison, several of the nation’s major metro areas cut their disconnected youth rate by several percentage points during that time, including Atlanta, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington, D.C.
Houston’s share of disconnected youth — which equals nearly 125,000 people — also ranks highest in the nation among the largest metro areas.
For Houston, the cost of failing to get local youth working or learning continues to add up.
Researchers at Measure of America, a project spearheaded by the nonprofit Social Science Research Council, estimate that young people who remain connected to school or the workforce earn an average of $38,400 more annually in their 30s compared to a disconnected youth. If Houston cut its disconnection rate to 9%, it could create about $1 billion in discretionary income annually for over 40,000 people, the analysis suggested.
“There are too many young people figuring out their futures in their bedrooms,” said Carolyn Watson, the co-chair of the Greater Houston Opportunity Youth Collaborative steering committee. “Houston has a business-oriented culture, and our community leaders understand dollars and cents. The business case for doing something about it is clear.”
Measure of America’s analysis spanned the Gulf Coast Workforce Board’s 13-county region, which includes the Houston metropolitan statistical area, plus Colorado, Matagorda, Walker and Wharton counties. Measure of America followed the same definition and methodology established in a 2016 study by the Kinder Institute.
Houston’s youth challenges
Houston’s stubbornly high share of disconnected youth may result from a mix of planning and population.
While graduation rates in the Houston area roughly follow national averages, Measure of America researchers noted that a below-average share of Houston youth obtain a two- or four-year college degree. Watson said Houston’s lack of progress in reengaging disconnected youth is partly due to young people slipping through the cracks after high school.
“What we need more of is finding pathways and doorways for those young people who graduated high school and didn’t go directly into college or workforce training,” Watson said. “This is a place where employers can really lean in and be part of the solution.”
Houston also hasn’t organized as extensively as other metro areas to address disconnected youth.
Atlanta and Phoenix, for example, found success by leaning on reengagement strategies, apprenticeship support and work-based learning programs to serve tens of thousands of students. Both metro areas cut their disconnection rates from roughly 16% in 2012 to 10.6% in 2022.
Still, some of Houston’s disconnection patterns likely stem from demographic trends. Over the decade examined by Measure of America, the number of people aged 16 to 24 in Houston increased by 19%, or 142,000 young people. Nationwide, the share of youth rose by just 1%.
“It is possible that institutions and resources that ordinarily lead to youth and young adult connection have not kept pace with this population growth,” Measure of America researchers wrote in their report.
State takes action
While Houston has struggled to move the needle on youth disconnection, recent initiatives and policy changes could create new pathways for engagement.
Texas lawmakers passed legislation this year that allows young people to enroll in state-approved virtual schools to earn a high school diploma instead of a GED diploma. Another bill this year mandates that 28 state-authorized workforce development boards include disconnected youth in their strategic plans and increase transparency on spending of federal funds.
Two years ago, state lawmakers created a new Texas Opportunity High School Diploma, which allows adult students to earn a high school diploma while taking workforce credential courses at a junior college. San Jacinto College is one of five institutions in the state to offer the diploma.
In 2023, the Texas Workforce Investment Council, housed in the governor’s office, formally included “opportunity youth” in its System Strategic Plan for 2024-2031. The move opens new funding serving opportunity youth through the Texas Talent Connection program, which awards state-administered, federally funded grants to workforce, training and reengagement providers. Grant recipients typically receive a maximum of $350,000 per year.
Daniel Potter, director of the Kinder Institute’s Houston Population Research Center, emphasized that creating robust pathways for local youth is an essential strategy for Houston’s competitiveness and economic health.
“Focusing on creating a system that ushers people from childhood to adolescence to young adulthood and beyond on a demonstrated pathway of success means that it creates avenues for prosperity for those who are here,” Potter said.
“It'll make Houston attractive to others, as well, and so it ultimately produces success coming and going. There are tax, economic and neighborhood implications that come from improving the conditions of young adults.”
