Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau following the 2020 presidential election, voter turnout by age group in Texas ranged from about 49% among 18- to 29-year-olds to 76% for adults 65 or older. By race/ethnicity, turnout ranged from 53% for Hispanic voters to 72% for White voters.
The lower rate for younger adults meant that while 18- to 29-year-olds made up about 24% of the state’s voting-age population and 24% of eligible voters, they only contributed 18% of the total vote count. Those 65 and older made up 18% of the voting-age population, 19% of eligible voters and 23% of the total votes cast.
The undervote by Hispanic residents meant that while they made up 36% of Texas’ voting-age population and 30% of eligible voters, their votes only comprised 25% of all votes cast. White residents made up 45% of the voting-age population and 51% of eligible voters, but more than 57% of the total votes cast in the state.
What would the electorate look like if Hispanics and young adults voted at rates that delivered a proportional vote for their groups? What if they voted like the most politically active voter groups — older adults and White residents?
Estimating the undervote
Applying 2020 voter turnout rates to more recent state population data, there are nearly 590,000 more 18- to 29-year-old eligible voters in Texas than those 65 or older, yet older adults are expected to cast nearly 750,000 more ballots in the upcoming election. In order for young adults to show up proportionally in the vote as they do in the populous of eligible voters, they would need to cast more than 625,000 additional votes.
Hispanic residents now make up 33% of eligible voters in Texas while White residents make up 49%, but the Hispanic vote is estimated to make up only 27% of all votes cast. In order for the Hispanic vote to be in line with their percentage of eligible voters in the populous, nearly 700,000 additional Hispanic votes would be required.
What if everybody voted like older and White voters?
Another way of thinking about the current undervote of young adult and Hispanic residents is to calculate the number of votes they would cast if their turnout rate was equal to the highest turnout rate among their respective comparison groups.
For young adults, the highest turnout rate among other age groups was 76% (adults 65 and older), and for Hispanic residents the highest rate among other race/ethnic groups was 72% (White, non-Hispanic).
If 18- to 24-year-olds voted like they were 65 or older, they would cast an additional 781,000 votes. Expanding this to consider 25- to 34-year-olds, they would cast an additional 750,000 votes if they voted like they were 65 or older.
Looking at race/ethnicity, if Hispanic residents voted at a similar rate as White, non-Hispanic residents, they would cast more than 1.2 million additional ballots. For Black voters, such a rate would mean more than 300,000 additional ballots cast. If all race/ethnic groups voted like White voters, more than 1.6 million more ballots would be cast.
To give an idea of the potential impact those voters could have on future elections: Former President Donald Trump carried Texas by 631,000 votes in 2020, and Sen. John Cornyn won his seat by 1.1 million votes.
A note about voter registration
All of the undervote estimates calculated above rely on population counts of the number of voting-age citizens. The vast majority of these individuals are eligible to vote, but many of them will not be able to in the upcoming election because they are not registered.
It is estimated that around 60% of eligible voters in Texas who are 18 to 29 are registered to vote, compared to more than 80% of eligible voters 65 and above. Regarding race/ethnicity, 63% of eligible Hispanic voters are registered compared to 79% of eligible White, non-Hispanic voters.
Getting eligible voters registered is a hurdle that can be resolved with legislation, such as automatic registration when a person turns 18. According to Voting Rights Lab, 23 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted some form of automatic registration.
Local turnout has broad implications
To even partially address the historic undervoting of young adults and Hispanic voters in Texas will in large part depend on Harris County and six other populous counties in the state.
If those 18 to 29 years old turned out to vote in Harris County in the same way those 65 or older do, they would cast almost 180,000 more votes in the upcoming election. If those 30 to 44 did so, they’d cast an additional 100,000 votes.
That’s nearly 300,000 more votes in Harris County, which could be transformative in local races for national office.
Take, for example, the 2020 race between Rep. Lizzie Fletcher and Wesley Hunt to represent District 7 in the U.S. House: It was decided by less than 11,000 votes. Similarly, the race between Rep. Dan Crenshaw and Sima Ladjevardian in District 2 was decided by less than 50,000 votes.
Though 300,000 additional votes may not be enough to change the outcome of statewide elections, increasing turnout in Harris County would still move the needle significantly. If eligible Hispanic residents voted at a similar rate as eligible White residents, the county would add about 179,000 votes — that’s nearly 15% of the total additional Hispanic votes from across the state.
If Harris County and Bexar, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Tarrant and Travis counties — each of which has over 1 million residents — were able to increase turnout among younger voters to be on par with the turnout rate of those 65 or older, it would introduce nearly 600,000 additional votes from 18- to 29-year-olds and nearly 360,000 votes from 30- to 44-year-olds. These seven counties could also provide nearly half of the additional Hispanic votes — about 558,000 — by increasing the turnout to be on par with that of White voters.
Call to action
Cynics may argue that “you’re just one vote,” but when enough “ones” silence their vote, the resulting electorate fails to reflect the rich demographic tapestry of our state and region — which produces systemic inequalities. Policies like automatic voter registration could make significant strides in addressing some of the contributing factors. However, the solution is ultimately an individualistic one: a person’s decision to vote or not vote.
Many efforts are already underway by nonprofit organizations as well as state and local government to register voters and get them to show up at the polls. Research that helps decision-makers unpack and understand the forces and influences that shape a person’s decision to vote will be important to ensure efficient and effective use of resources in addressing the issue.
Harris County can lead the way locally, and Texas can lead the way nationally. A more heterogenous voter pool ensures that in the marketplace of ideas, those best suited to the values, needs and preferences of the public are selected and reflected in our public servants.
