Birth rates play a fundamental role in shaping the future of communities. Changes in fertility affect population counts and age structure, with long-term implications on economic growth and demand for public services.
Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this study analyzes declining fertility and shifting demographic trends across the Houston area’s five largest counties: Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria and Galveston.
Key findings
- Total fertility rates, the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if current age-specific fertility rates remained constant, fell across all five counties between 2003 and 2024, consistent with broader state and national trends.
- Brazoria (-32%) and Harris (-29.2%) counties experienced the largest declines.
- Montgomery County had the highest total fertility rate in 2024 (1.9), while Fort Bend recorded the lowest (1.5).
- Across all five counties, fertility patterns shifted toward older childbearing ages, suggesting that more women are waiting longer to have children.
- While fertility rates decreased across all racial and ethnic groups, rates remained highest among Hispanic women.
Despite dropping fertility rates, Houston’s population has continued to grow, largely due to people moving to the region. As major metropolitan areas across the United States experience similar demographic shifts, Houston’s experience offers valuable insight into how regional migration and declining fertility will shape the future of American cities.
