Once we are out of the current economic straits, this growth most likely will be sustained for decades to come. There are many reasons, but one of the most important is the fact that Houston is an important part of one of the world’s most important economic units: the Texas Triangle, stretching from Dallas and Fort Worth on the north to Austin and San Antonio at the southwest corner, with Houston anchoring the southeast corner.
The Triangle is made up of only 35 of Texas’s 254 counties. But 18 million people live in those 35 counties — 66% of the state’s population.
A surprisingly large number of the Triangle’s residents live in large cities. Already, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio are among the nation’s 10 most populous cities. That’s only happened twice before in American history — New York in the 1860s and California starting in 2010. Austin and Fort Worth currently are 11th and 13th and moving up quickly.
Our political and civic leadership needs to accept the reality that Texas is an urban and metropolitan state. We need to rethink our priorities for legislative action so they align with the reality of the New Texas.
And these places are growing fast. By 2050, the populations of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metros each are expected to grow to 13 million people — about the same population as metro London, Buenos Aires or Beijing.
Furthermore, the Triangle produces 77% of the state’s gross domestic product. The Triangle is home to 48 Fortune 500 headquarters. If the Triangle were a nation, the 35 counties of the Texas Triangle would be the 15th largest economy in the world — about the same size as Mexico or Australia.
In short: Despite Texas’ reputation as a rural state, it is the mega-metropolitan economy of the Triangle that is driving the state forward.
For generations, we have been thought of in national and global circles — indeed, we have thought of ourselves — as the land of wide-open spaces, of oil wells and ranches. But now we are home to one of the most powerful urbanized regions in the United States.
Our political and civic leadership needs to accept the reality that Texas is an urban and metropolitan state. We need to rethink our priorities for legislative action so they align with the reality of the New Texas.
Our state leaders would do well to support the economic engines in the Triangle to keep them growing and producing jobs.
Austin already confronts coastal housing prices. But Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth are gradually seeing their affordability advantage over the coasts erode as well.
Preparing for the future also means recognizing the importance of education to prepare our workforce. As more people gravitate to these cities, Texans must put emphasis on educational investment and innovation in them. It also means investing in the infrastructure of urban Texas — water and electricity especially.
Transportation must also be addressed, as the Triangle cities have some of the worst transportation congestion in the country. Equity strategies must address the realities of diversity in Texas cities because the growing gap between the haves and have-nots within the Triangle’s cities will hold back the strength of Texas’ future economic growth.
Our ongoing “COVID-19 and Cities” coverage examines the pandemic’s effects on Houston and other metropolitan areas, both now and once the outbreak is over.
And the Triangle will need to step up to the plate on housing. Affordability and supply of housing are becoming issues throughout the Triangle. Austin already confronts coastal housing prices. But Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth are gradually seeing their affordability advantage over the coasts erode as well. The talented people who make the economy go make locational decisions based on affordability and quality of life, so if Texas has a housing supply problem, it’s also likely to have a workforce productivity problem.
Because the Triangle’s growth is so strong and likely to be durable for the years to come, Texas should also find ways to harness that prosperity to reach its smaller cities and the rural areas, which are struggling with both population growth and prosperity. By focusing on educational connections through telecommunications to remote places, locating branches of the Triangle’s world-class health care institutions in rural areas, and distributing employment opportunities associated with the Triangle networks of the New Texas economy, the Texas Triangle can be part of solving the urban-rural divide that separates and alienates so many Americans.
Houston will survive the current downturn related to COVID-19 and oil prices. But it will continue to prosper — and help the rest of Texas prosper — only if the state’s leaders recognize that Texas increasingly is a large, complex and metropolitan state.
Texas can wisely apply the prosperity of its economic trajectory to assure an uplifting future for all of its residents. This requires a clear understanding of the Texas growth that inevitably is occurring. And it requires the wisdom to act to assure that the Triangle’s education investments, workforce training, health care, housing and basic infrastructure projects keep pace and allow us to secure attainable opportunities and a better quality of life for all Texans.
This post was originally published in the Houston Chronicle.
Cisneros served as secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development under President Bill Clinton and is a former mayor of San Antonio. Fulton is the director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University. They are among the authors of a forthcoming book on the Texas Triangle to be published by Texas A&M University Press.