Voting is vital to a healthy democracy because it elects government leaders and reflects civic engagement. Nationally, turnout for general elections among registered voters is usually in the low- to mid-60% range during presidential years and between 40% and 50% in other years. In Harris County, about 59% of eligible voters cast a ballot in 2024, and about 45% voted in 2022.
Analyzing survey data from nearly 4,200 eligible local voters, this study identifies voter identity and intention as the primary predictors of turnout in Harris County in 2024.
Key findings
- Voter identity — the degree to which an individual identifies with being a voter — was the strongest predictor of voting behavior. Improving eligible voters’ feelings that they are frequent and reliable voters has the potential to increase their likelihood of voting by up to 29 percentage points.
- Voter intention — a person’s stated commitment before an election to cast a ballot in that election — was the second-strongest predictor. Individuals who said they were “certain to vote” were 17 percentage points more likely to have cast a ballot.
- Expressing certainty to vote shifted 4.8% of eligible voters in the sample from unlikely to likely voters — suggesting that an additional 137,000 voters across Harris County could be mobilized to vote.
These findings highlight two different pathways for improving turnout among eligible voters: building a long-term voter identity and activating voter intentions. Potential efforts include expanding voter education, emphasizing voting’s importance and helping individuals make vote pledges and plans.
